IA: Adding Renren (RENN) $3.69 to Watch List.

[Institutional Analyst Inc.]

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Internet Stock Review, Thursday, 12/01/2011.

Los Angeles, CA 44..67F Cloudy.
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1. Adding Renren (RENN) $3.69, to Watch List.
2. IsoRay (ISR) $0.89, Conference Call Tonight.
3. Disclaimer.

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Internet Stock Review
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Blog Version:

Adding Renren (REN) $3.69, to Internet Stock Review Watch List.

Renren.com: http://www.renren.com/

"Shooting ducks in a barrel...bottom fishing...if you liked it at $24 (in May of 2011) -- you have to love it at $4.00!"  

Renren Chart:

All of the above come to mind when we look at Renren (REN), the "Facebook" of China. When this started trading in May ($24 after the "pop" and a $9.5 billion market cap), we thought this would probably be a great addition to the Internet Stock Review -- if it pulled back to the $10 level or near its $14 IPO pricing, where they raised an impressive $743 million !

Here are a couple notable quotes around the time of the IPO.

"Demand is massive-pure and simple," Scott Sweet of IPO Boutique wrote in a note to clients that week regarding the Renren deal.

"As the first of the world's major social networks to attempt an IPO, Renren is poised to benefit from significant investor enthusiasm surrounding social networking," Renaissance Capital.

"Stop giving our money to China." Some guy on park bench from Occupy Wall Street.

FYI:

Renren is the Facebook of China
DangDang is the Amazon of China
Baidu is the Google of China (or the other way around)
Youku is the Youtube of China
Jiayuan is the Match.com of China
Tudou another Youtube

(Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse were the lead underwriters)

Well...it blew right past that $10 number we were hoping to see and it sliced through $9, $8, $7, $6, $5 and $4 -- and come to Papa -- here we are in the $3's. "One generation plants the seeds and another generation enjoys the shade" (and old Chinese proverb).

If you read this article from Forbes, it still seemed worth a shot at $24 despite its "premium" valuation near $10 billion with only $76 million in revenues for 2010 (did we just say that?)

Forbes: http://www.forbes.com/sites/tomiogeron/2011/05/04/facebook-of-china-renrens-ipo-pricing-delayed-until-wednesday-reuters/

(One other thing to note. Despite our track record, we are not analysts, and do not do in depth analysis -- which is worth mentioning -- because this is a Chinese company and they have been known to cook their books on occasion. So that's now an inherent risk with all Chinese companies. Even "real" analyst doing what they thought was "real" analysis, have been fooled by some Chinese skallywags -- costing their clients billions.)

And with that said, we nonetheless think we're going to get 3X return on this idea. Also from a "trading" standpoint, there is a chance this pops the day Facebook goes public and as money (billions and billions) comes out of Facebook, looking for a new home. Sounds logical, right?

And further, fortunes can turn around at the drop of a good quarter, as MercardoLibre (MELI) recently showed when it ran from $45 to $90 in two months, on good numbers.

MercardoLibre (MELI) Chart:

 

For its part Renren put out so-so numbers for the third quarter.

Full Release: http://markets.financialcontent.com/demo/?Page=MediaViewer&GUID=19941312&Ticker=RENN

Renren posted a net loss of $1.2 million for the three months ended Sept. 30, compared with a year-earlier net profit of $7.3 million. On the basis of earnings per American Depositary Share, Renren broke even, compared to earnings of 8 cents per ADS a year earlier. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected earnings of a penny per ADS.

Revenue rose 57% to $34.2 million from $21.8 million. Gross margin fell to 80.4% from 81%.

Renren predicted fourth-quarter revenue of $31 million to $33 million, below the average $35.7 million forecast of eight analysts polled by Thomson Reuters.

Third-quarter operating expenses more than doubled on year to $34 million, including spending to promote games on Renren's website and $8.1 million in expenses related to Nuomi.

(Noumi is their Groupon, http://china.globaltimes.cn/society/2011-02/624764.html )      

But then look at this....

The company has cash of $1.23 billion, and no debt position. This gives it a book value of $3.15 per share !

Are you kidding us. Does anything else really matter ? China's version of Facebook -- trading at book value ? Hello.

Yes, good things do sometimes goes to the patient. Imagine if they went public at this level. Wall Street would be all over it. Now (for now) an unheard of opportunity has been placed in their laps and they just stare in confusion and bewilderment.

We had the exact same feeling when we added Google (GOOG) to the Watch List in October of 2008 at $364. The shares fell from a peak of $711 almost exactly a year earlier and nobody seemed to care. When it was trading at $700 and you asked someone if they would have loved to see it fall to $600 or $500 or $400 before buying -- most would have thought it would never get there, so why bother playing that game ? And yet at $350 --  most of Wall Street just stared in confusion and bewilderment.

As an analogy, Apple (AAPL) is trading at $387 today. If we asked most if they would be buyers at half the current price or $198 -- we'll guess near 100% of people would say yes. But let us tell you, if Apple fell to $198 (meaning we're in a bear market) we know exactly what would really happen. Stares of confusion and bewilderment. We've seen it a million times.

Don't let that happen here.

Good day, it must be happy hour somewhere.

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Biotech Stock Review.

2. IsoRay (ISR) $0.89, Conference Call Tonight.

5:00 EST (Dang, right in the middle of happy hour, blasphemy, we say.)

Chart:

IsoRay, Inc. to Webcast, Live, at RetailInvestorConferences.com on December 1st.

Company invites Main Street and Wall Street investors to attend interactive real-time virtual conference

NEW YORK, Nov. 29, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- IsoRay, Inc. (ISR), a medical technology company and innovator in seed brachytherapy and medical radioisotope applications for brain cancer, lung cancer, head and neck cancer and prostate cancer today announced that Dwight Babcock, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, will co-present at www.RetailInvestorConferences.com.

DATE: December 1, 2011

TIME:  5:00 PM EST

LINK:   www.retailinvestorconferences.com > Click the red "register/ watch event now" button.

This will be a live, interactive online event where investors are invited to ask the company questions in real-time both in the presentation hall as well as the company's "virtual trade booth." If attendees are not able to join the event live in real-time, an on-demand archive will be available for 90 days.

It is recommended that investors pre-register to save time and receive event updates.

About IsoRay 

IsoRay, Inc., through its subsidiary, IsoRay Medical, Inc., is the sole producer of Cesium-131 brachytherapy seeds, which are expanding brachytherapy options throughout the body.  Learn more about this innovative Richland, Washington company and explore the many benefits and uses of Cesium-131 by visiting www.isoray.com.

Full Release: http://markets.financialcontent.com/demo/?GUID=20070710&Page=MediaViewer&Ticker=ISR

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Disclaimer: RENN, This announcement contains forward-looking statements. These statements are made under the "safe harbor" provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements can be identified by terminology such as "will," "expects," "anticipates," "future," "intends," "plans," "believes," "estimates" and similar statements. Among other things, the business outlook for the fourth quarter 2011 and quotations from management in this announcement, as well as Renren's strategic and operational plans, contain forward-looking statements. Renren may also make written or oral forward-looking statements in its filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC"), in its annual report to shareholders, in press releases and other written materials and in oral statements made by its officers, directors or employees to third parties. Statements that are not historical facts, including statements about Renren's beliefs and expectations, are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement, including but not limited to the following: our goals and strategies; our future business development, financial condition and results of operations; the expected growth of the social networking site market in China; our expectations regarding demand for and market acceptance of our services; our expectations regarding the retention and strengthening of our relationships with key advertisers and customers; our plans to enhance user experience, infrastructure and service offerings; competition in our industry in China; and relevant government policies and regulations relating to our industry. Further information regarding these and other risks is included in our registration statement on Form F-1, as amended, filed with the SEC. All information provided in this press release and in the attachments is as of the date of this press release, and Renren does not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statement, except as required under applicable law. Not a client.
ISR, Statements in this news release about IsoRay's future expectations, including: the advantages of our Cesium-131 seed, the advantages of the Gliasite delivery system, whether the liquid form of Cesium-131 receives regulatory approval and can be used successfully with the Gliasite delivery system, whether IsoRay will be able to continue to expand its base beyond prostate cancer, whether the use of GliaSite(R) with Iotrex(R) or Cesium-131 to treat brain or other cancers will be successful in the initial and any future implants, whether there will be demand for GliaSite(R) at expected or historic levels, and all other statements in this release, other than historical facts, are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 ("PSLRA"). This statement is included for the express purpose of availing IsoRay, Inc. of the protections of the safe harbor provisions of the PSLRA. It is important to note that actual results and ultimate corporate actions could differ materially from those in such forward-looking statements based on such factors as physician acceptance, training and use of our products, our ability to successfully manufacture, market and sell our products, our ability to manufacture our products in sufficient quantities to meet demand within required delivery time periods while meeting our quality control standards, our ability to enforce our intellectual property rights, whether additional studies are released and support the conclusions of early clinical studies, whether the liquid form of Cesium-131 receives and maintains all required regulatory approvals, whether any liquid form of Cesium-131 is able to be used successfully with the Gliasite delivery system, patient results achieved when Cesium-131 is used for the treatment of cancers and malignant diseases beyond prostate cancer whether with the Gliasite delivery system or in another delivery system, successful completion of future research and development activities, and other risks detailed from time to time in IsoRay's reports filed with the SEC. Not a client
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Going Concern Statements.
We would like to point out that the majority of companies listed on the
OTC Bulletin Board have factors which create an
uncertainty about the their ability to continue as a going concern. These
concerns are typically related to financing (or lack of), competitive
environments, lack of operating history and operating at loss levels which
is typical of most start-ups.
These statement can usually be found in their most recent 10Q filings and
typically you don't have to dig to far down past the financial tables. We
like to use http://www.pinksheets.com for quick and easy access to SEC
filings. We think it would be wise for most investors to assume that all
companies listed on the OTC Bulletin Board (and many on NASDAQ) have going
concern issues.
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